ryph's first victim in the subforum

[awol]

I'll start the fun.

ryph, go ahead and tell me why I'm a fool:

I added WM to my watch list today. I might short/buy some PUTs, might not. Either way, after the next big market dive, I'm probably going to buy and sit on it for a long time.

Unless it jumps back up, like it did before, in which case I'll dump it and wait for it to drop again.

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/1y/w/wm


Let the bashing begin.

[ryph]

financials are toast. period. i would not go long ANY financial institutions (minus maybe GS - ONLY as a hedge, and only because of their special ties and the government's reliance on them)

the reason being, they sit on an abnormal amount of debt derivatives. think $550+ TRILLION (yes with a T) obviously with mortgage securities just burning a hole in their pocket.

if the derivatives come crashing down (oh and believe me the mountain is fucking shaking - think: billion$ of recent write downs by banks and unrelated co's that keep making headlines) then in essence the entire banking sector will become insolvent, and then queue the greater depression. this is why i also *stress* to get your cash out of banks. if we get a legit bankrun, the fdic doesnt have the manpower or funds to guarantee you. protect yourself from that end.

basically, with all that useless rambling, do you believe home prices will stabilize? if so, then the balance sheets of financials whose underlying assets are tied to homes will too. the problem, is home prices will NOT stabalize. so expect some insane shit coming down the line. then expect the shit to spread to other areas of paper, credit card, car loans, student loans etc...
watch for interest rate spikes and more defaults along all types of these debt instruments.

if you want a good speculative play, somewhat long term cause these things are hard to time, just short all american car companies.

[awol]

Appreciate the opinion.

GS is my baby. I buy more every time I can lower my avg cost.




if you want a good play, somewhat long term cause these things are hard to time, just short all american car companies.

I totally agree on this one...

[rmk]

when did you buy? gs got murdered

[awol]

Yea, I avg at about $175. I'm hoping when things hit the fan it will dive under $150.

[Tom]

Ryph is DG's Donald Trump.