ryph
03-20-2008, 06:54 PM
DON'T PANIC!
this was a PLANNED take down, and WILL NOT LAST. if you sold in a panic these past 2 days, shame on you. please understand rising commodities are the bankers worst enemy, so these take downs are to be expected.
for those that know a bit of financial workings
(warning: a lot of words incoming. skip if you dont care)
this is pretty much that went down: weekend bear sterns well belly up, literally was bought by JPmorgan for less than their nyc building is worth. Fed opened up a new loan facility that takes in mortgage paper (worthless!) from investments banks. this is usually reserved for commercial banks. this is highly inflationary. money from helicopters any1? not one, but TWO investment banks went to the window. gold initially RALLIED, and HARD in hong kong trading overnight, but in come ny and it gets bombed. (oh credit crisis is suddenly over, nothing to see here folks)
come tuesday, 2:15pm, 75bp rate cut. more gold bombing, along with the entire commodity complex! it was touted that the missing quarter percent is the Fed being hawkish on inflation, OH REALLY? thats a good one considering real interest rates are now negative and they opened up a new loan facility. boom, they went to work, targeting stops.. triggering margin calls and black box selling, which feeds on itself to cause more selling. in my opinion, they failed in one respect. they wanted to steer money away from commodity complex back into the general markets, especially bonds. whoops, one mistake.. hedge funds are are extremely long gold and grains. they tanked those, and then the funds began liquidating the general equities as well. everything was red across the board that tues.
tues evening: mainstream media cites recessionary fears is bursting the commodity 'bubble' and the trade is over. fair, everything is tanking, including equities.
wed: markets rally hard, (thanks PPT!) but yet commodities red across the board again! this time they were prepared, and sent in the order to increase margins for hedge funds because of 'increased volatility'. welp, thatll create more selling in the commodity complex.
ALSO, hong kong and the rest of the east is on vacation for their equivalent of easter. the vernal equinox or something. so trading was very THIN these past few days. very convenient to keep hammering gold down after hours with nobody else there to bid against you!
(ok skip to here, or if you read that nice:] )
in wrap up, these markets are such a rigged JOKE! welp, might as well profit! with the commodity complex hammered, the Fed now has the cover to go ahead in his rate cutting and bailing out campaign without annoying people questioning his printing press tactics.
i was 90% in cash in regards to my gold/silver and oil shares (i KNEW this was coming.. ask brand0n, rmk or even meca. i have been saying theyll attack gold and SOON - was even debating of putting in a short on gold), but i was pretty heavy in my agriculture trades, which, go figure, got hit the hardest.
anyway, this right here, right now, is a buying opportunity of a lifetime. i went on a giant buying spree these past 2 days snatching up oil, gold, more agriculture and anything tangible under the sun. if another day or 2 of selling happens, so be it.
this was a PLANNED take down, and WILL NOT LAST. if you sold in a panic these past 2 days, shame on you. please understand rising commodities are the bankers worst enemy, so these take downs are to be expected.
for those that know a bit of financial workings
(warning: a lot of words incoming. skip if you dont care)
this is pretty much that went down: weekend bear sterns well belly up, literally was bought by JPmorgan for less than their nyc building is worth. Fed opened up a new loan facility that takes in mortgage paper (worthless!) from investments banks. this is usually reserved for commercial banks. this is highly inflationary. money from helicopters any1? not one, but TWO investment banks went to the window. gold initially RALLIED, and HARD in hong kong trading overnight, but in come ny and it gets bombed. (oh credit crisis is suddenly over, nothing to see here folks)
come tuesday, 2:15pm, 75bp rate cut. more gold bombing, along with the entire commodity complex! it was touted that the missing quarter percent is the Fed being hawkish on inflation, OH REALLY? thats a good one considering real interest rates are now negative and they opened up a new loan facility. boom, they went to work, targeting stops.. triggering margin calls and black box selling, which feeds on itself to cause more selling. in my opinion, they failed in one respect. they wanted to steer money away from commodity complex back into the general markets, especially bonds. whoops, one mistake.. hedge funds are are extremely long gold and grains. they tanked those, and then the funds began liquidating the general equities as well. everything was red across the board that tues.
tues evening: mainstream media cites recessionary fears is bursting the commodity 'bubble' and the trade is over. fair, everything is tanking, including equities.
wed: markets rally hard, (thanks PPT!) but yet commodities red across the board again! this time they were prepared, and sent in the order to increase margins for hedge funds because of 'increased volatility'. welp, thatll create more selling in the commodity complex.
ALSO, hong kong and the rest of the east is on vacation for their equivalent of easter. the vernal equinox or something. so trading was very THIN these past few days. very convenient to keep hammering gold down after hours with nobody else there to bid against you!
(ok skip to here, or if you read that nice:] )
in wrap up, these markets are such a rigged JOKE! welp, might as well profit! with the commodity complex hammered, the Fed now has the cover to go ahead in his rate cutting and bailing out campaign without annoying people questioning his printing press tactics.
i was 90% in cash in regards to my gold/silver and oil shares (i KNEW this was coming.. ask brand0n, rmk or even meca. i have been saying theyll attack gold and SOON - was even debating of putting in a short on gold), but i was pretty heavy in my agriculture trades, which, go figure, got hit the hardest.
anyway, this right here, right now, is a buying opportunity of a lifetime. i went on a giant buying spree these past 2 days snatching up oil, gold, more agriculture and anything tangible under the sun. if another day or 2 of selling happens, so be it.