View Full Version : next to drop: commercial real estate
and the downward spiral toilet flush of the turd known as the us economy completes yet another revolution.
U.S. mall vacancy rates rise as economy slides (http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNews/idUSN0420122020080404)
"The vacancy rate at U.S. strip malls rose to the highest level since 1996 in the first quarter of 2008, while that for big malls reached levels unseen since 2002, research firm Reis said on Friday."
how to profit
ultrashort realestate etf: SRS (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=srs)
if it breaks above 97 im buying, you should too
http://ryphs.com/srs.jpg
brand0n
04-13-2008, 02:16 PM
kinda confused
short or buy?
both. by buying srs, you are shorting a basket of REIT's 2x.
so lets say REIT funds drop 2% in a given day. SRS will be up 4%.
bling
04-13-2008, 04:30 PM
buy buy buy
Omnis
04-14-2008, 12:52 AM
both. by buying srs, you are shorting a basket of REIT's 2x.
so lets say REIT funds drop 2% in a given day. SRS will be up 4%.
In other words, you just risk the money you put down on SRS shares instead of otherwise having to owe more if you fuck up on a short?
Sounds good to me.
longdongsilver
04-14-2008, 10:10 AM
hmmmm interesting this stock has lost 10% since jan 1 are you trying to tell me real estate has gone up in value 10% in 3 1/2 months?
hmmmm interesting this stock has lost 10% since jan 1 are you trying to tell me real estate has gone up in value 10% in 3 1/2 months?
commercial real estate has, and by 5%. remember this is a leveraged fund. it tracks the price of commercial RE 2x. when the residential shoe dropped, every1 hopped on the bandwagon and dumped commercial REIT's (real estate income trusts) as well. then the usual volatile yoyo back and forth as the entire mortgage mess unfolded. but now, with unemployment ready to skyrocket (aka office space vacancies), and subsequently consumer spending to fall through the floor (retail space vacancies: re link in 1st post) srs has only to go higher, a lot higher, from here.
i just bought some at 94.68. i said id wait until it broke above its current downtrend line around the 97 area. but eh, if it goes down a bit here i have no problem cost averaging in more. of course below 85 ish and im out.
longdongsilver
04-14-2008, 10:51 AM
i agree commercial real estate is taking a shit but i'm not seeing the correlation between the market and the etf performance. ive been looking to purchase some property for my business over the last year and it feels like i'll be waiting another 12-18 months before it's time to write a check
one other thing i dont like about shorting reits is you have to cover the dividends while you're short so if they pay out $2/share then you get to pay out $2/share
longdongsilver
04-14-2008, 10:59 AM
ps i'll be keeping an eye on srs it sounds like good bsns
i just bought some at 94.68. i said id wait until it broke above its current downtrend line around the 97 area. but eh, if it goes down a bit here i have no problem cost averaging in more. of course below 85 ish and im out.
just a quick update, bought more today at 89.33. seems today *might* have been a nice engineered short covering rally under the cover of great earnings from intel and ibm (too bad all their earnings came from overseas and bolstered in dollar amounts because of currency conversions). also they did a nice spin job where jp morgan's revenue was -50%, but yet since it beat expectations the stock rallied 6.7%. lol only in the us markets.
my speculation of a short covering rally that wont last is based on the fact the most shorted stocks with the ugliest fundamentals are up the most today. 4,5 even 7+% today. (car manufacturers, financials/mortgage, home builders, car dealerships and of course reit's)
if it breaks below 85 tomorrow ill cut my losses (which are substantial as it stands, but golds surge today helped me stay healthily green for the day) <3 gold
makeshift
04-17-2008, 12:01 PM
good luck...i don't think you should cut your losses on any really bad day though...I think you should at least be able to break even on your trade...looks like its just had a couple unfortunate days..it should go back up to 93 or something more reasonable
below 85 is a trend line break (see above chart), meaning the uptrend going back 1 year would be broken. if thats broken who knows where it may go. i added another lot today @ 86.53. this is the last one. i 90% expect a spike from here, its either that or a break of the trendline, in which case im out regardless.
looking back, i should have followed my own advice for the down trend break. o well, i have 3 lots open at lower lows. any nice spike here and im chilling.
good thing i just bought all these office condos
makeshift
04-17-2008, 12:30 PM
below 85 is a trend line break (see above chart), meaning the uptrend going back 1 year would be broken. if thats broken who knows where it may go. i added another lot today @ 86.53. this is the last one. i 90% expect a spike from here, its either that or a break of the trendline, in which case im out regardless.
looking back, i should have followed my own advice for the down trend break. o well, i have 3 lots open at lower lows. any nice spike here and im chilling.
yeah thats true...i think you should at least get some sort of spike in the next week or so...good luck
good thing i just bought all these office condos
lol you knew full well months back my thoughts on that;x
yes but i don't care because i'm a hustlaaaaaaaa babyyyyyyy i'll set up a lemonade stand and pay the rent if it goes vacant
longdongsilver
04-17-2008, 07:37 PM
ULTRASHORT REAL ESTA
(AMEX: SRS)
Last Trade: 85.73
Trade Time: 4:07PM ET
Change: Down 1.28 (1.47%)
Prev Close: 87.01
Open: 87.80
http://ryphs.com/trading/srs_4-18-08.jpg
fuck this im out. it will have to break 85.50 in short order for me to come back in. even though this entire market is a farce right now and fundamentally believe this will be a quick bear trap, i have no idea how far this will run down. ill watch for 86.
put this bitch in the loss column.
glass half-full thinking, this works out. gold is down more than 3% today. the funds are better put to use in DGP and miners. gday on this lovely friday as i celebrate the russian style of markets
longdongsilver
04-18-2008, 09:39 AM
yeah wow down as far as 81 and change today
GFG
makeshift
04-18-2008, 06:45 PM
that sucks...sometimes you have to cut your losses
i havent forgotten about this thread.
fundamentally nothing has changed. imo i was just early in the call. i expect the entire real estate complex to break apart at the seams. ill wait for it to break above its trend line up and a break above its shorter term down trend (about 93ish?) and ill be coming into this with gusto.
http://ryphs.com/srs6-3-08.jpg
i havent forgotten about this thread.
fundamentally nothing has changed. imo i was just early in the call. i expect the entire real estate complex to break apart at the seams. ill wait for it to break above its trend line up and a break above its shorter term down trend (about 93ish?) and ill be coming into this with gusto.
http://ryphs.com/srs6-3-08.jpg
Things are already tanking, our company put up record #'s of listings last week (we are a CRE info co, we track availabilities lease/sale/rentals in every major market in the US). The more listings, the higher the availabilities.
the more listings with higher availablilities means lower prices. simple supply + demand.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a6/Basic_supply_demand.png
edit: thanks mj for info from the inside. gives me just alil more conviction for this trade.
Yase sir, you are correct, lower prices indeed, however, it means more for my co when it comes to what industry we're involved in.
More work = more $.
Omnis
06-03-2008, 07:41 PM
So even Real Estate is becoming more comprised of services than tangibles? Wow.
So even Real Estate is becoming more comprised of services than tangibles? Wow.
when was real estate tangibles anyway? (minus the obvious property itself)
realtors, brokers, title agents, property management, appraisals etc..
the entire industry is full of paper shufflers.
Omnis
06-03-2008, 09:44 PM
when was real estate tangibles anyway? (minus the obvious property itself)
realtors, brokers, title agents, property management, appraisals etc..
the entire industry is full of paper shufflers.
True. I was thinking just about property.
http://ryphs.com/srs_6-9.jpg
attempt #2 @ $91
internots
06-10-2008, 07:44 PM
were going to have a lost decade just like japan
capone
06-11-2008, 03:19 PM
Good run today ;D
update:
US retail property 2nd-qtr worst in 30 yrs - report (http://uk.reuters.com/article/governmentFilingsNews/idUKN0738704920080707)
U.S. store closings and cutbacks turned the second quarter into the worst for strip mall owners in 30 years ... according to a report by real estate research firm Reis. Strip malls ... saw average vacancies spike 0.5 percentage points to 8.2 percent, a level unseen since 1995 ...
http://bp3.blogger.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SHN34ongzfI/AAAAAAAACPk/l9jRSfRWwqM/s1600/StripMallVacancy.jpg
http://ryphs.com/StripMallVacancy.jpg
so, any1 make a few bucks?
Poophead
07-14-2008, 11:58 PM
bought an assload of AAPL Jan 09 $160 calls in March and Im rollin in cash hookers and coke. Time for a bit of rehab now
jw1re
07-17-2008, 11:11 AM
ouch
ouch
im not here telling people when to buy and sell.. but if you didnt take profits at 120 when it went parabolic, youre a straight fool. that was 35% real quick like.
not to worry, this will trade above 150 again.
O.C. office construction plummets 91% (http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/07/17/oc-office-construction-plummets-91/)
"Voit Commercial Brokerage reports that construction of O.C. office buildings plunged 90.8% in the second quarter to 325,276 square feet. Last year in the second quarter, 3.5 million square feet was under construction."
"All the added space pushed the second quarter office vacancy rate to 14.46%. A year [ago], vacancies were at 8.95%."
90% drop in construction. that number is INSANE. just the shear number of laid off construction workers will fuck the area up the ass.
http://www.itulip.com/images/forlease.jpg
Ducks Ahoy
07-18-2008, 02:09 PM
waiting for all this to start affecting commercial vacation property.
oddly enough doesnt seem like theyve been affected much by this just ppl from closeby are renting instead of from across country plus euros are coming over and buying :(
bumpity!
so, any1 actually trade this bad boy?
i own barely any to qualify as any sort of hedge:(
also, this trade isnt over by a LONG shot. short commercial reit's will be fun for the whole investor family for years.
so far my commercial property is still fully rented
one of my dads units is rented to a NPO though that says economy has killed their fundraising and theyre in financial hardship though
chart update:
http://ryphs.com/srsupdate.jpg
so far my commercial property is still fully rented
one of my dads units is rented to a NPO though that says economy has killed their fundraising and theyre in financial hardship though
its a slow moving process. weve had in depth convos regarding your specific situation. this thread really doesnt relate to you that much.
MGM still building ;x
rofl, you know my thoughts on that pos, and their situation fits perfectly into my reasoning behind srs suggestion. ;)
A+ call srs was an animal
Mall Owner Is Warning of Default (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122636946597216229.html)
Ailing mall owner General Growth Properties Inc. warned Monday in a government filing that its failure to refinance or extend $1 billion in debt due this month could trigger default on billions of dollars in debt and its ability to continue operations would be in "substantial doubt."
...
General Growth has $900 million in debt coming due Nov. 28 on two luxury malls on the Las Vegas strip. It has another $58 million in bonds due on Dec. 1.
From the GGP 10-Q on the economy:
Deteriorating economic conditions will have an adverse affect on our revenues and available cash, and may also impair our ability to sell our properties.
nice srs component
sn1per
11-11-2008, 07:48 AM
Sweet
Starbucks Corp. slid 2.6 percent after the world's biggest chain of coffee shops predicted slowing sales and backed away from expansion plans. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. told clients to sell shares of Prudential Financial Inc., the second-biggest U.S. life insurer, pushing the stock down 12 percent.
Starbucks is in trouble. Imagine all of the commercial real estate that they are going to shed
bump. SRS is an animal
ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (ETF)
206.10
+29.27 (16.55%)
IMHO Monday could be another down day for SRS, but the rest of the week I think is going to be monstrous for SRS.
i.e. house price index figures
Anyone with me?
how to profit
ultrashort realestate etf: SRS (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=srs)http://ryphs.com/srs.jpg
in case anyone missed it, peep the virtual stock exchange
i think i'm in 2nd place and all i did was cop srs
made 50% profit, 500k
Down 33% today for SRS, I'm thinking by the end of the week it may break 300.
nah, here comes the monetization
if you didnt take at least profits..
Ducks Ahoy
11-29-2008, 08:52 AM
uggh any hope for moving some commercial right now?
i have a prime lot in an area that has so far stayed up, and i need to move it asap
musicnerdanimals
11-29-2008, 09:18 AM
uggh any hope for moving some commercial right now?
i have a prime lot in an area that has so far stayed up, and i need to move it asap
If you're saying your area has stayed up so far, then why are you asking this question? I don't think there are any places in the US that haven't been hit by this. Even development and real estate in Hawaii has slowed down now that this thing has gone worldwide, there are less and less foreign investors.
Not only that, but many developers have gone bankrupt on current projects and don't have any money, or are unable to get loans.
Yeah it's gonna be hard selling that land, moreso than it was 2 years ago. Can you do it ASAP? Maybe, but you're gonna be taking a hit in profit.
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