so when the economic collapse comes...

[Kalibah]

how bad do you think it will be?

are we talking great depression bad? willl i have to boil small animals i hunted for sustenence?

[ryph]

i dont believe it well get great depression bad, only on the speculation that it wouldnt be profitable to people in power. it will get pretty ugly tho.. foreclosures have only JUST begun, for example.

this is just another wealth transfer thats about to take place, nothing more.

[Kalibah]

so investments aside, its effects would be like carter era stagflation? worse?

[ryph]

stagflation is def in the cards.
anything bought on credit (homes, cars, boats, small biz expansion and any junk bought via home equity loans) will deflate in price

tangible commodities will soar in price as the dollar continues its plunge.

and yes, imho itll be worse than that period.

[Kalibah]

how long do you think it will last assuming we just put another bandaid on the wound?

[ryph]

events unfolding right now socially, economically and geopolitically are going to come together, imo, somewhere around late 2010. a lot of the people i respect and read are calling for 2011, but i think they arent giving enough credence to the power of an exponential downward economic spiral.

[Kalibah]

but once they all come together -- how long will this shit last?

[ryph]

but once they all come together -- how long will this shit last?

not sure what ya mean. once it all comes together, thats it. time to start investing wisely. it wont feel that way for sure, but thats always the case. pays to be a contrarian. if youre referring to when can the usa return back to the way it has been since the early 90s, with 2 cars for every family and a white ficket fence in the suburbs.. well then never. anything more than 30-50 miles away from a major urban area will become the new ghetto.

[ry]

http://recession.org

http://thedepression.us

[ryph]

Jim Rogers – “If I'm not making myself clear, let me say it, you're going to see exactly the same thing. You're going to see worse recession -- worse inflation, the dollar's going to go down even more than it did in the '70s. In the '70s, America was a creditor nation still, now we're the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. So you're going to see worse inflation and, ultimately, a worse recession because the dollar is going to be under serious attack”.

[mhu]

anything more than 30-50 miles away from a major urban area will become the new ghetto.

you mean closer than? I guess I didn't get that part

[ryph]

you mean closer than? I guess I didn't get that part

no i typed that right. further away in the ex/suburbs. one of the things that is coming together from the social/geopolitical front is peak oil. yes its a 'theory' and yes many have argued with me its a myth. imo, its not. so for this 'educational' piece lets assume its real.

anyway, when oil is perpetually higher and higher, both from the geological supply constrictions and economically from our falling dollar, eventually people wont be able to afford the current lifestyles of driving their cars everywhere. also any goods and materials they would normally buy would have an added tax because of the higher cost of transportation into those areas. i envision more and more people migrating back into the urban areas, where public transport via buses/trains/subways etc.. will be more accessible. this will put exorbitant amount of downward pressure on those home prices on the fringe, and essentially make them ghettos.

this ties into a long term plan of mine, time the housing market just right, where there is so much pain and foreclosure homes are cheap as all hell, yet right before or just as the migration begins to put a bid under urban real estate (especially along public train routes)

i hope that helps

[UnluckyXIII]

Ryph, I got to say I really enjoy your insight into economics. You have given me ammo for many bar debates where I was lacking back-up for my rants.

I specialize more in political doom and gloom prospecting with a minor in economics. (You'd never know or anything by my sig.)

I agree with you about the coming depression. I fear that this will give the Gov't the needed excuse to socialize Health Care completely and start the road to Nationalizing the power and oil industries.

The rural zones far from cities being the next ghetto is a very good point. I never thought too much about it but it makes complete sense.

Can I ask your political leaning?

[ryph]

libertarian

[UnluckyXIII]

The gold should have been a give-away. Glad to be on the same side.

I shall call you Alan Mutha-fuckin' Greenspan.